Pillar III · HSI Research

Institutional risk frameworks
for non-stationary environments.

Post-2030 Pathways

Most institutional risk frameworks were built for stable systems. The 2030+ horizon is not stable. Compound transitions across technology, climate, governance, and social systems create non-stationary risk environments that traditional frameworks cannot model.

The Institute's Planetary Futures work develops scenario architectures and institutional risk frameworks for non-stationary environments. This is not climate forecasting or geopolitical risk analysis in the conventional sense. It is the question of how institutions organize themselves to navigate uncertainty that compounds rather than resolves.

What scenarios should inform 2030+ institutional risk frameworks, and what does scenario stress-testing look like for non-stationary systems?
Scoping Horizon Scan · Q4 2026
How do institutions plan against compound transitions where technology, climate, and social systems interact in non-linear ways?
Scoping HSI Brief series · Q4 2026
What is the institutional logic for long-horizon investment under deep uncertainty?
Forthcoming HSI Brief · 2027
Where do planetary, technological, and governance transitions create cascade risks that current frameworks underweight?
Forthcoming Horizon Scan · 2027
Publications under this pillar will be linked here as they land. The first outputs are scheduled across Q3 and Q4 2026 (see the research agenda for current scoping work).
Fellow appointments under this pillar are pending. The Inaugural Global Fellowship cohort is being expanded across all four pillars through 2026.
External engagements under this pillar will be listed here as they occur. See the full engagement record for the Institute’s presence across all pillars.