Independent public-interest research

Understanding change.
Strengthening institutions.

Horizon Search Institute studies how institutions adapt when technological, human, planetary, and geopolitical systems change together.

Our research connects these transitions to the decisions facing policymakers, institutional leaders, and society.

Horizon Scan 002 · September 2026

AI Governance

Where AI is actually governed, from international commitments to infrastructure, standards, and enforcement.

The Scan examines how institutions set the conditions on AI’s use through access to computing capacity, procurement, insurance, and existing law. It compares legislation and enforcement across seven major regimes and sets out four priorities for institutional leaders.

Research Brief 003 · October 4, 2026

One Chain

Ashwin Telang, Avisikta Sinha and Sam Marson on disclosure and accountability in AI commerce.

The information needed for an informed purchase exists within the chain, and the question for policymakers is whether the party holding it at the decisive moment should be required to share it.

Read the brief
On the research agenda now

Four programs.
One connected agenda.

The shared framework

Compound Transition

Technology, human capability, planetary systems, and geopolitics change together. Compound Transition examines how a decision in one domain constrains or enables choices in the others.

Explore the framework
Image credits
Responsible AI
Human/robot teaming. Image: S. Bagchi/NIST.
Human Performance
Artemis II Orion water-survival training, Neutral Buoyancy Laboratory, January 23, 2024. Photo: NASA/Josh Valcarcel.
Planetary Futures
Landsat 9 image of the Colorado River Delta and Gulf of California, March 30, 2025. Courtesy of the U.S. Geological Survey.
Governance & Diplomacy
General view of a meeting during European Commissioner Apostolos Tzitzikostas’s visit to Germany, Berlin, September 22, 2026. Photo: Kyriakos Samartzidis / European Commission. © European Union, 2026, licensed under CC BY 4.0. Cropped and resized for web presentation.

Publications

Research in
the public record.

Searchlight provides short-form analysis of emerging signals. Research Briefs develop focused institutional questions. Horizon Scans synthesize changing landscapes. The planned HSI Outlook will bring work across the four programs together.

Explore the publishing program
Our standard: a published test for claims made under uncertainty

A published test for claims made under uncertainty.

The Verification Test states a claim, the evidence that would support it, and the evidence that would weaken or falsify it. HSI uses the test in Searchlight issues as one part of a broader research-integrity approach that also covers authorship, sourcing, review, disclosure, and corrections.

An example · Searchlight No. 021
Claim under test

Regulators are moving to require platforms to pay publishers for AI-generated search summaries as a use in its own right, over and above payment for training and indexing.

Evidence that would support the claim

A formal investigation opens, or interim measures land on Google tied specifically to generative summarization, on roughly the timeline the Meta order took.

Evidence that would weaken the claim

The Autorité treats the complaint as already covered by the 2022 commitments and creates no new obligation, which would suggest generative summarization is not yet a distinct licensable use in the EU framework.

HSI has held salons in New York (June 2026) and London (October 2026). Tokyo is in development for February 2027.

In development · February 2027

Tokyo Salon

Asia Anchor Salon · Governance & Diplomacy

Human Agency in an Age of Intelligent Systems. Building on New York and London, the Tokyo Salon would examine how societies adapt to advanced AI, drawing on Japanese and wider Asian perspectives. Date and venue to be confirmed.

About the Tokyo Salon
Past convenings and press coverage

London · October 7, 2026

The Royal Society · Governance & Diplomacy · Horizon Scan 002

Twenty-two participants, under the Chatham House Rule, on governing intelligent systems: broad agreement on ends, sharper disagreement on means. Read the debrief →

New York · June 9, 2026

House of the Redeemer · Responsible AI · Horizon Scan 001

Senior leaders from finance, healthcare, law, government, the UN system, and academia, convened under the Chatham House Rule to test Horizon Scan 001 against the judgment of people who run regulated institutions. Read the recap →

Leadership and governance

People

All people

Meet HSI’s leadership, advisers, research staff, and contributors.

Partner with HSI,
or support the Institute.

HSI welcomes relevant institutional collaborations and philanthropic support. Neither relationship confers control over research conclusions.

Partnerships, founding patronage, and research independence
Partnership

Institutional partners

Research and co-publication, field access, academic collaboration, convening, and foundation funding. Partners bring questions, data, and settings the Institute could not reach alone.

Project scope, disclosure, and editorial independence are established before work begins.

How partnership works →
Patronage

Founding Patrons

Founding Patrons provide general support for independent public-interest research, open governance tools, the Doctoral Fellowship, and convenings. Recognition and other benefits remain secondary to that philanthropic purpose.

Recognition in published research, subject to your preference.

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Research Independence

Partners, patrons, and funders support the mission and the pillars, but do not direct research conclusions, review work before publication, or receive editorial input. Contributions of $25,000 or more are disclosed in the HSI Outlook, and funding from foreign government or state-linked entities is reviewed and disclosed regardless of size. Current funding, disclosure, and fiscal-sponsorship information is here.